athenasius
Well-Known Member
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...bilise-extra-500000-conscripts-claims-ukraine
George and I listen to a Russian who fled with his wife and family to Tashkent to escape the September 22 conscription drive aka Putin's "partial mobilization".
He's been right all along, usually days ahead of the regular news but I looked around to see what else was available in the mainline news and the Guardian out of the UK is reporting on it. Using Ukrainian sources which are always a little suspect because of the spin they put on things.
Nevertheless the date that Konstantin said this afternoon was Jan 17 which lines up with the Ukrainian sources in this Guardian article.
In the past few days Konstantin has been reporting on some other signs coming out of Russia including Putin signing an unusual series of documents that wouldn't mean much in the West but to Russians it indicates moving onto all out war footing.
Here's the Guardian.
"Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed that Russia is set to order the mobilisation of as many as 500,000 conscripts in January in addition to the 300,000 it called up in October, in another apparent sign that Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war.
Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief, said Ukraine believed the conscripts would be part of a string of Russian offensives over the spring and summer in the east and south of the country."
"Skibitsky said it would take Russia approximately two months to put together the military formations and any Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well equipped and trained the Russians are. Much will also depend, he said, on the continued supply of western ammunition and weaponry to Ukraine in order to equip the new reserve units Ukraine is preparing.
“If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse,” said Skibitsky, describing the upcoming six to eight months as the last push. He said Ukraine expected the latest wave of mobilisation to be announced on 15 January, after Russia’s winter holiday period. “They are putting their emphasis on numbers of men and equipment and hoping to overwhelm our side.”
And Radio Free Europe is also reporting on the new mobilization orders. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-defense-minister-mobilization-putin-war/32202105.html here
"According to Reznikov, Russia was preparing to close it borders to men of conscription age."I want to appeal to Russian conscripts. First of all, this applies to residents of large cities. I know for a fact that you have about one week left to make at least one choice. At the beginning of January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then they will declare martial law," Reznikov said, adding Belarus could take similar action."
As expected Russia's declaration of a cease fire over Orthodox Christmas (Jan 6 & 7) was a tactic to regroup and continue their attack on Ukraine. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2023
"Putin could have been seeking to secure a 36-hour pause for Russian troops to afford them the ability to rest, recoup, and reorient to relaunch offensive operations in critical sectors of the front. Such a pause would disproportionately benefit Russian troops and begin to deprive Ukraine of the initiative. Putin cannot reasonably expect Ukraine to meet the terms of this suddenly declared ceasefire and may have called for the ceasefire to frame Ukraine as unaccommodating and unwilling to take the necessary steps towards negotiations. This is an intentional information tactic that Russia has previously employed,"
George and I listen to a Russian who fled with his wife and family to Tashkent to escape the September 22 conscription drive aka Putin's "partial mobilization".
He's been right all along, usually days ahead of the regular news but I looked around to see what else was available in the mainline news and the Guardian out of the UK is reporting on it. Using Ukrainian sources which are always a little suspect because of the spin they put on things.
Nevertheless the date that Konstantin said this afternoon was Jan 17 which lines up with the Ukrainian sources in this Guardian article.
In the past few days Konstantin has been reporting on some other signs coming out of Russia including Putin signing an unusual series of documents that wouldn't mean much in the West but to Russians it indicates moving onto all out war footing.
Here's the Guardian.
"Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed that Russia is set to order the mobilisation of as many as 500,000 conscripts in January in addition to the 300,000 it called up in October, in another apparent sign that Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war.
Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief, said Ukraine believed the conscripts would be part of a string of Russian offensives over the spring and summer in the east and south of the country."
"Skibitsky said it would take Russia approximately two months to put together the military formations and any Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well equipped and trained the Russians are. Much will also depend, he said, on the continued supply of western ammunition and weaponry to Ukraine in order to equip the new reserve units Ukraine is preparing.
“If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse,” said Skibitsky, describing the upcoming six to eight months as the last push. He said Ukraine expected the latest wave of mobilisation to be announced on 15 January, after Russia’s winter holiday period. “They are putting their emphasis on numbers of men and equipment and hoping to overwhelm our side.”
And Radio Free Europe is also reporting on the new mobilization orders. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-defense-minister-mobilization-putin-war/32202105.html here
"According to Reznikov, Russia was preparing to close it borders to men of conscription age."I want to appeal to Russian conscripts. First of all, this applies to residents of large cities. I know for a fact that you have about one week left to make at least one choice. At the beginning of January, the Russian authorities will close the borders for men, then they will declare martial law," Reznikov said, adding Belarus could take similar action."
As expected Russia's declaration of a cease fire over Orthodox Christmas (Jan 6 & 7) was a tactic to regroup and continue their attack on Ukraine. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2023
"Putin could have been seeking to secure a 36-hour pause for Russian troops to afford them the ability to rest, recoup, and reorient to relaunch offensive operations in critical sectors of the front. Such a pause would disproportionately benefit Russian troops and begin to deprive Ukraine of the initiative. Putin cannot reasonably expect Ukraine to meet the terms of this suddenly declared ceasefire and may have called for the ceasefire to frame Ukraine as unaccommodating and unwilling to take the necessary steps towards negotiations. This is an intentional information tactic that Russia has previously employed,"
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