Critical Alert -- Security
UPDATE 14: Clashes between ISIS and Iraqi forces, fuel supply disruptions continue in Iraq June 21. Baghdad (BGW), Erbil (EBL), and Basra (BSR) airports open.
This alert affects Iraq
This alert began 21 Jun 2014 21:49 GMT and is scheduled to expire 23 Jun 2014 23:59 GMT.
Updated Information
On June 21, fighting between the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants and Iraqi forces backed by Shia' militias continued in parts of northern, central, and western Iraq (map <http://goo.gl/maps/dgkSM> ). The Iraqi military is still launching a counteroffensive in the town of Tal Afar, Ninawa Province, and the area remains a contested territory. Fighting also continued at the Baiji oil refinery, and operations at the complex are suspended; gas and oil tankers have also been stolen or damaged. Iraqi military officials claim that the government is still in control of the complex, though multiple reports indicate that ISIS has taken parts of the facility and could further its gains. Disruptions to operations at the oil refinery have led to fuel shortages and long lines at gas stations across Iraq. Despite ongoing violence and insecurity in many areas, flights are operating out of Baghdad (BGW), Basra (BSR), and Erbil (EBL) international airports.
ISIS's line of control has remained mostly stable, and the group still holds Mosul, the capital of Ninawa Province, and Tikrit, the capital of Salah ad Din Province; recent ISIS actions indicate that the group might be primarily focused on solidifying its territorial gains. Militants have made some additional gains, seizing the border crossing in Al Qa'im, Anbar Province, a major link between Iraq and Deir ez-Zour Governorate, Syria. The taking of the border crossing will likely improve the group's ability to connect its stronghold of Raqqa, Syria, with its forces in in Iraq. ISIS also continued to engage Iraqi forces in Diyala Province, but the Iraqi military has so far prevented militants from overrunning Baquba and advancing further to the south.
Recent developments indicate that ISIS might not yet be interested in or have the capability to advance on the Kurdistan Region (KR) or Baghdad. While there are ongoing clashes between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga forces in parts of Ninawa Province outside of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)'s control, the probability of ISIS attacks inside the KR is low, as ISIS is unlikely to risk directly engaging the Peshmerga on their home territory. Expect increased security in KRG-controlled areas, including the cities of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. In Baghdad, security forces have increased security around the International (Green) Zone, which houses government facilities. However, bombings, violent crime, and homicides have occurred in the capital's sectarian enclaves, and violence in these areas could worsen.
Iraqi officials have solicited military support from the international community. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has formally requested US airstrikes against ISIS positions. However, US President Barack Obama has only committed to deploying some 300 commandos to advise and train Iraqi military and security forces, as well as increase intelligence coordination between the two countries. Obama has not ruled out air strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq, but he has made such support largely conditional on the Iraqi government's ability to make progress in resolving sectarian divisions. Iran has provided some military support through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), with General Qassem Suleimani leading operations. IRGC-QF is assisting Iraqi security forces with planning and has set up an operations room focused on protecting Shia' shrines. Although Iran's assistance is welcomed by the Iraqi government, it could further Sunni perceptions that the Iraqi government is an Iranian client state, which might worsen sectarian tensions.
UPDATE 14: Clashes between ISIS and Iraqi forces, fuel supply disruptions continue in Iraq June 21. Baghdad (BGW), Erbil (EBL), and Basra (BSR) airports open.
This alert affects Iraq
This alert began 21 Jun 2014 21:49 GMT and is scheduled to expire 23 Jun 2014 23:59 GMT.
Updated Information
On June 21, fighting between the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants and Iraqi forces backed by Shia' militias continued in parts of northern, central, and western Iraq (map <http://goo.gl/maps/dgkSM> ). The Iraqi military is still launching a counteroffensive in the town of Tal Afar, Ninawa Province, and the area remains a contested territory. Fighting also continued at the Baiji oil refinery, and operations at the complex are suspended; gas and oil tankers have also been stolen or damaged. Iraqi military officials claim that the government is still in control of the complex, though multiple reports indicate that ISIS has taken parts of the facility and could further its gains. Disruptions to operations at the oil refinery have led to fuel shortages and long lines at gas stations across Iraq. Despite ongoing violence and insecurity in many areas, flights are operating out of Baghdad (BGW), Basra (BSR), and Erbil (EBL) international airports.
ISIS's line of control has remained mostly stable, and the group still holds Mosul, the capital of Ninawa Province, and Tikrit, the capital of Salah ad Din Province; recent ISIS actions indicate that the group might be primarily focused on solidifying its territorial gains. Militants have made some additional gains, seizing the border crossing in Al Qa'im, Anbar Province, a major link between Iraq and Deir ez-Zour Governorate, Syria. The taking of the border crossing will likely improve the group's ability to connect its stronghold of Raqqa, Syria, with its forces in in Iraq. ISIS also continued to engage Iraqi forces in Diyala Province, but the Iraqi military has so far prevented militants from overrunning Baquba and advancing further to the south.
Recent developments indicate that ISIS might not yet be interested in or have the capability to advance on the Kurdistan Region (KR) or Baghdad. While there are ongoing clashes between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga forces in parts of Ninawa Province outside of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)'s control, the probability of ISIS attacks inside the KR is low, as ISIS is unlikely to risk directly engaging the Peshmerga on their home territory. Expect increased security in KRG-controlled areas, including the cities of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. In Baghdad, security forces have increased security around the International (Green) Zone, which houses government facilities. However, bombings, violent crime, and homicides have occurred in the capital's sectarian enclaves, and violence in these areas could worsen.
Iraqi officials have solicited military support from the international community. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has formally requested US airstrikes against ISIS positions. However, US President Barack Obama has only committed to deploying some 300 commandos to advise and train Iraqi military and security forces, as well as increase intelligence coordination between the two countries. Obama has not ruled out air strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq, but he has made such support largely conditional on the Iraqi government's ability to make progress in resolving sectarian divisions. Iran has provided some military support through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), with General Qassem Suleimani leading operations. IRGC-QF is assisting Iraqi security forces with planning and has set up an operations room focused on protecting Shia' shrines. Although Iran's assistance is welcomed by the Iraqi government, it could further Sunni perceptions that the Iraqi government is an Iranian client state, which might worsen sectarian tensions.
