Colorado State Researchers Predict 71% Chance of Hurricane Hitting US

Lovin Jesus

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A major hurricane has a 71% chance of striking the continental United States this season, Colorado State University (CSU) researchers said Thursday, up from the 52% chance during the past century.

Along the Gulf Coast, there’s a 46% likelihood of a major Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane hitting between Florida’s panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico begins June 1, and forecasters are predicting a more active season than usual.

Colorado State released its initial forecast, calling 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes with winds more than 110 mph.

That coincides with an AccuWeather forecast Wednesday that predicted between three and five major hurricanes.

In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic sees around 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The CSU forecast cites La Nina conditions or cooler than normal Pacific waters to drive the above normal activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

When water temperatures over the equatorial Pacific are colder, it promotes less wind shear, which promotes storm development. This is opposite of El Nino conditions, which historically produce less active storm seasons in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.



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We had a shorter but more brutish winter this year. And we're in for a doozy of a spring blizzard coming in a few days. Seeing it being called as potentially the worst in decades. Just a crazy year for weather so I could see an active hurricane season as well. We don't get them up here but in my old home of Southern Ontario we would sometimes get the tail end of the bigger ones that went inland. I will never forget when Hurricane Andrew came through back when I was a kid. It wasn't hurricane status any longer but it was so blustery. It set off all of our old, cold-war-era air raid sirens.


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They do tend to come every year. I guess the question is how many and how severe. I get annoyed with the media always drumming up the worst fears. They're doing that here with the coming blizzard and apparently people are hoarding, according to the media at least. But they also might not be. The people who would go shopping on the days the storms are due to arrive are going out now. So people are probably getting their normal amounts but just all at the same time. Our car totally broke down so we can't go out hoarding anyways. But I like to keep a small prep shelf for emergencies so we should be OK. And it's spring so the snow will melt soon and we wont have the crazy low temperatures if there are power outages. (we do have a fireplace at least)