The Unraveling Middle East - Part 2

**Chris** · March-21st-2011, 11:08 PM

The Unraveling Middle East - Part II

The Unraveling Middle East - Part II
By David Walsh

With the Middle East being swept by revolutionary chaos, Iran is the power that stands to gain most from the outcome. The countries affected by the turmoil, their strategic location, the large Shia populations in many of these nations and Iran's close ties to Sunni Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood could give Teheran a hegemonic position in the region. Already, there is evidence to indicate this is occurring. On March 2, President Ahmadinejad warned the Saudi government not to move against that country's Shia minority—numbering 2 million—on the planned "Day of Anger" protest set for March 11. This was followed the next day by Iran's criticism of the Saudi decision to raise oil production by 500,000 barrels a day, to meet the shortfall caused by the fighting in Libya. The fact that Iran has so publicly stated its position regarding Saudi domestic and economic policy indicates growing confidence in Tehran regarding its status as a regional power.

A primary reason for Iran's growing assertiveness is its capacity to use force. This includes not only Iran's considerable armed forces, but also the capabilities of its surrogates. This combination enables Iran to wage war throughout Southwest Asia, and in key regions beyond.

Iran's regular armed forces number some 290,000, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) providing another 155,000. Together, these forces field nearly 2,000 tanks, 340 fighter-bombers and over 200 naval vessels. The regular armed forces are tailored for conventional warfare. The IRGC is considered the most sound branch of the military. While it is tasked with defending Iranian territory, its air force controls Iran's ballistic missiles, ensuring regime control over this vital component.

While Iran has older equipment in its inventory, it also deploys considerable quantities of modern weapons. These include some 500 T-72 tanks, 25 MiG-29 fighters and 30 Su-24 strike aircraft, and three Kilo-class attack submarines. Older equipment has been modernized, including F-14 Tomcats supplied to the Shah in the 1970s. Iran's defense industries have also produced tanks and combat aircraft, and have reportedly developed a variant of the Russian S-300 surface-to-air missile, embargoed by Moscow. Cooperation with foreign nations, including North Korea and China, has also taken place.

As for ballistic missiles, Iran is estimated to have 1,000 in service. Most worrisome is the Shahab 3, which has a range of 2,100 km, enough to reach the Aegean Sea. There are estimated to be several hundred Shahab 3s in service. The Shahab 5, developed from North Korea's Taepodong 2, has a 6,000 km range, covering all of Europe (although it's not been confirmed if these missiles are deployed).

Then there is the matter of WMD. In a report for Canada's Mackenzie Institute, its president, John C. Thompson, notes that Iran has produced chemical weapons since the 1980-88 war with Iraq. As for nuclear weapons, while Iran's program has suffered setbacks due to cyberwar attacks (namely Stuxtnet), Thompson states that "Iran has certainly had ample opportunity to amass a stockpile of radioactive material. They might not yet be able to deliver a nuclear warhead to Tel Aviv, but they could strew hundreds of kilos of radioactive dust over it." The same could be said for any point in the Gulf.

To this should be added Iran's proxies and allies. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has amassed thousands of rockets and battlefield missiles targeting Israel. It also has a large force of trained guerrillas that can invade northern Israel and seize key areas to forestall an Israeli drive into Lebanon. Hamas can similarly strike from Gaza, as recent attacks with Grad missiles on Beersheba show. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), backed by Iran and Syria, carried out major exercises in Gaza in February, which showed its enhanced ability to wage guerrilla war. Syria, with chemical weapons, a nuclear program, armed forces nearly 300,000 strong, 5,000 tanks, 555 combat aircraft, and over 850 surface-to-surface missiles (soon to include the Russian-made Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missile) presents a serious threat to the Golan Heights, and can send large forces into southern Lebanon in support of Hezbollah.

The presence of large Shia populations in Iraq, Yemen, Bahrain and other Gulf states simplifies Iranian efforts to destabilize these countries, paving the way for overt Iranian action. Teheran's tactical alliance with the Taliban means that Allied forces could see a western front open in Afghanistan, with greater pressure in Pakistan. Somali pirates, supported by Islamist groups, have expanded their activities into the Indian Ocean, increasing the threat to Western shipping in the event of general war.

In other regions, Iran has useful allies. North Korea, with its enormous conventional forces and WMD, presents a continuing danger, particularly through its growing ballistic missile capabilities. Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, engaged in a major military buildup, can threaten Colombia and the Caribbean Basin, while its alliance with Iran has seen a sizeable Hezbollah presence emerge in the Western Hemisphere. Most alarmingly, according to Germany's Die Welt newspaper, Tehran and Caracas signed an agreement in November 2010 to establish an Iranian military base in Venezuela. Jointly manned, this will house Iranian ballistic missiles like the Shahab 3, in range of the U.S. Iran has reportedly given permission for the use of these weapons by Venezuela in case of an "emergency." If such weapons are deployed, they would give Iran the ability to mount a military strike on American soil.

There is also the matter of mass terror attacks against the West. Hezbollah has long engaged in such actions, and al-Qaeda could be counted on to take advantage of a global conflict to do the same. Given both groups' presence in North America and Western Europe (as well as in vital oil producers like Mexico and Nigeria), attacks on political, economic and military targets are likely.

David Walsh has a Ph.D from the London School of Economics and is the author of book, "The Military Balance in the Cold War: US Perceptions and Policy, 1976-85."

**GlennO** · March-22nd-2011, 01:52 AM

Good article! Thanks Chris

**mlb** · March-22nd-2011, 07:12 AM

The Unravelling Middle East - Part III
By David Walsh

A Scenario

Opinion but very possible

It is the near future. The Middle East has been shaken by violent upheaval. A bloody stalemate takes hold in Libya. A power struggle has developed in Egypt between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood, which has increased pressure in Jordan. The same is true in Yemen. Morocco, Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Oman have also seen growing unrest, with violent clashes. Egypt’s chaos has led to Hamas effectively controlling the Sinai, deploying guerrillas and rockets on Israel’s vulnerable Negev border. Tensions are high in Korea, while socialist Venezuela, faced with serious domestic troubles and buoyed by its alliance with Iran, is taking an aggressive stand against the U.S. These developments have had a debilitating effect on global markets. Oil is over $100 a barrel, while commodity prices have soared in the Middle East, stoking the upheaval.

For Iran, this growing crisis provides both danger and opportunity. The danger comes from growing unrest within, as the pro-democracy movement increasingly challenges the Mullahocracy. The opportunity comes from the developing global situation. Israel is effectively surrounded, with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank forming a unity government with Hamas and Jordan unstable. With interests in the Middle East, Asia and Latin America under threat amidst growing economic turmoil, the U.S. global position is highly vulnerable. By contrast, Iran’s position has strengthened. With a naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, unopposed transit for its warships through the Suez Canal and establishment of a missile base in Venezuela, Teheran has increased its military reach considerably.

The decision is thus taken to initiate hostilities in the Middle East. The flash point is Israel. The first day of war sees Iranian and Syrian ballistic missiles hit Israeli military targets (air and naval bases, missile sites, nuclear facilities), with others fired at cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa. This is followed up by Hezbollah forces, under cover of rocket bombardment, which invade Israel from Lebanon and, using surprise, capture large areas of Galilee. This throws Israeli forces onto the defensive and secures rear areas in Lebanon and Syria. From Gaza, Hamas and PIJ forces, also covered by a rocket barrage, launch attacks on Israeli border posts, while terrorist attacks are mounted from the West Bank and inside Israel through deep-cover cells. Attacks from Sinai further tie down Israeli forces, while a “Day of Rage” among Israeli Arabs causes additional disruption.

Syria provides air and artillery support for Hezbollah, then launches an assault on the Golan Heights, meaning Israel’s forces—exposed to the rear by Hezbollah—face an all-out conventional battle.

At this time, 2-3 days into the war, the main phase of Iran’s operation comes into effect.

Iranian forces make an air and amphibious assault on northwestern Oman, at the tip of the Strait of Hormuz. Using mines and fast attack craft supported by air units and missile batteries on islands just inside the Gulf, the Iranians effectively seal off this vital waterway. At the same time, Iranian midget subs and merchant ships mine the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, off Yemen, and the Saudi ports on the Red Sea, closing this vital waterway. At the same time, IRGC forces launch deep-penetration raids into Afghanistan and Pakistan, coordinating with an Iranian-sponsored guerrilla and terror offensive. Finally, supported by radical Shia forces in Iraq, large Iranian forces invade the south of that country, seizing oilfields and cities like Basra. Similar Shia actions in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia wreak havoc with oil production and ease the way for direct Iranian military action.

Outside the Middle East, war also erupts. After weeks of violent border clashes, North Korea invades the South, using ballistic missiles to strike Japan. Venezuela alerts its forces and, together with Bolivia, institutes an economic embargo on the U.S., sending oil, silver and tin prices skyrocketing. Islamist terrorists, who have attacked oil facilities in Mexico and Nigeria, now move to launch mass attacks in North America, Western Europe and Australasia.

Thus, within the space of a week, the U.S. and its allies face a nightmare scenario. Israel is fighting for its life, while Iran is effectively securing the Persian Gulf. A second Korean war has broken out, and Venezuela is now moving to threaten Colombia and the sea lanes through the Caribbean. The world economy is in turmoil. Oil is now over $220 a barrel, and all commodity prices have soared. The disruption of global maritime traffic leads to shortages of foodstuffs and raw materials, with particularly devastating effects in developing countries.

Militarily, the U.S. is faced with having to wage two full-scale regional wars while having to face the possibility of conflict in Latin America. If Iranian missiles are deployed in Venezuela, U.S. naval and air forces would have to be diverted to eliminate this threat. With the limited power projection capabilities of its allies, the U.S. would be hard-pressed to deal with other contingencies (Somali pirates, for example), as well as intensified existing conflicts (Afghanistan). At home, the threat of mass terror attacks would strain law enforcement, intelligence and military efforts. Mass casualties, panic and disorder would combine with economic upheaval to seriously disrupt the social fabric of Western nations. The outcome of such a conflict for the West could be very much in doubt.

David Walsh has a Ph.D from the London School of Economics and is the author of book, The Military Balance in the Cold War: US Perceptions and Policy, 1976-85.

**Sean Osborne** · March-23rd-2011, 12:52 AM

Shiite Iran, under the current regime and possibly the next, stands as the primary candidate to reap the harvest of Sunni disaffection for its apocalyptic al-Mahdi hastening agenda. It's a no-brainer that the iranian agenda is a clear and present danger to the established Sunni order of the "Islamic world." The Sunni's will not sit idle in the face of this direct threat to their agenda. Events in Bahrain are the Sunni line-in-the-sand threshold.