
Originally Posted by
Sean Osborne
I believe Israel will strike Iran before it can successfully construct a nuclear fission/fusion weapon of its own. I believe the timing of that strike can be measured in days and hours instead of months or weeks.
Israel knows that Iran has lots of continuing outside help (North Korea, AQ Khan, etc) as it had (first and foremost from France, but also from Canada and other former Manhattan Project and Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists) itself in the development of a nuclear weapon capability.
Israel knows from the founder of its own nuclear program, Ernst David Bergmann, that there is only one form of nuclear energy, that any civil splitting of an atom inherently includes the ability to do so for military purposes.
Israel knows from it's secret French-built underground Dimona EL-102 heavy water reactor, which was ten times smaller (100MW) than the one Iran built with Russian assistance (Bushehr 1000MW), built two nuclear weapons in less than 6 years.
Israel knows its current stockpile of nuclear weapons did not actually require even a single test detonation.
Israel knows that Iran's IR-40MW heavy water plutonium reactor built with Russian assistance has been operating since the late 1990s - definitively more than ten years.
Israel is going to strike sooner than anyone expects.
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